![]() Rather than assess crude birth rates and crude death rates, let’s now look at fertility rates. There is some evidence that the demographic transition model is effective in understanding the relationships between economic development and human population. There is a behavioral component to this way of thinking, in that it assumes that people change their decision-making because they have access to information or other opportunities that reduce certain behaviors. It is assumed that access to medicines, safe drinking water and sanitation, and information about disease, will help improve human health. In essence, the demographic transition model argues for economic development to help reduce crude death rates. In the post-industrial stage, the population growth begins to level off because the crude birth rates have reduced to closely follow the crude death rates. During the mature industrial stage, crude death rates continue to decline, and it is theorized that economic development within the society bring incentives to bring the crude birth rates down slightly, however, the overall population continues to climb in an exponential j-curve. ![]() Note that crude birth rates remain roughly the same during this stage, thus prompting an increase in the population rate. During the urbanizing/industrializing stage, however, improvements in health care delivery and medicines, coupled with investments in sanitation and infrastructure, bring a sharp drop in the crude death rates. In the pre-industrial stage, crude birth rates and crude death rates remain close to each other keeping the population relatively level. The model has four stages: pre-industrial, urbanizing/industrializing, mature industrial, and post-industrial. The demographic transition model was initially proposed in 1929 by demographer Warren Thompson.
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